"There is a factual basis to Peak oil and, in fact, there is reason to believe that Peak Oil may have already occurred."

This was a conclusion of the town-appointed Regional Peak Oil Task Force in Brattleboro. The Task Force made its initial report (PDF) to the Brattleboro Select Board this month. It's not exactly ground-breaking news. It has been ten years since a Scientific American article proclaimed the "end of cheap oil" before 2010, and it has been widely observed that global crude oil production reached at least a temporary peak in May 2005. Peak oil is now even discussed in the pages of the Wall Street Journal.

Still, far from everyone accepts that the planet is fast approaching a long-term decline in oil production, that is, that oil production has reached its peak or soon will. State and local governments, for example, wrestle with how to replace aging bridges or handle parking congestion, without considering how many cars and trucks are likely to be on the roads when we have half as much oil available as now-which could be in less than 25 years. Despite warnings that preparing for a smooth transition to an energy-poor economy can take 20 years of hard effort, the US federal government has no coherent strategy (PDF) for even beginning. The only state government that I'm aware is developing a strategy for addressing peak oil is Queensland, Australia.

It's important, therefore, for state and local governments to educate themselves and prepare themselves for fundamental changes in their lives when oil is less plentiful. And that's how an official organization like the Brattleboro Regional Peak Oil Task Force can be important.

The nine-member task force includes a diverse group of people both from Brattleboro and the surrounding region. Not all of them have a long history of concern about energy supplies. Craig Stead, a chemical engineer on the task force who has worked in the petroleum industry, described learning in the university in 1965 that the world "always has 10 years of oil reserves left," because geologists kept finding new oil as the older reserves were depleted. It wasn't until a couple years ago that he ran across the concept of peak oil, and he soon discovered that 1965 was also the year that world oil discoveries had peaked. Despite ever-growing demand for oil, geologists are discovering less over time. Stead has completely shifted his stance on the future availability of oil, and he joins the rest of the task force in advocating rapid action.

Some of the areas that task force said peak oil would affect are:

• The ability of individuals to commute to work.
• The ability of businesses to provide continuous employment
• The ability to heat a building in the winter.
• The ability to provide government services like snow plowing, street repair, heating ...public buildings, recycling, as well as...fire, police and rescue
services.
• School busing and school operation...
• The important hospitality and tourism sector.
• The availability and affordability of food.

The Brattleboro Peak Oil Task Force follows in the footsteps of many other municipal peak oil task forces, though it may be the first in the eastern United States. Portland, Oregon, has probably gone the furthest with their work, including a plan to reduce oil consumption by half over 25 years.

Some might ask, if peak oil is already here or will soon be here, why bother creating a task force just to say that? I think there are several reasons.

For one, it's important to recognize that peak oil means that oil shortages will be a long-term trend, not just a short-term blip. Policies to get through a temporary dip in oil availability are different than those for a fundamental change in how much oil is available.

Second, it's likely that we have far less than the 20 years needed to smoothly transition to a world with less oil. A few months or a few years extra to prepare can make a big difference. For example, deciding now not to build new parking garages or roadways can free up money for the rail systems we'll need in the future.

Finally, we're going to need stronger community connections to work together when oil is less abundant. We need creative people talking to each other about how to meet our needs with different solutions than have been used in the age of cheap oil. A municipal task force can help start those conversations.

One of the recommendations of the Brattleboro Regional Peak Oil Task Force was that the Select Board help them expand the Task Force and increase its diversity. They want more stakeholders sitting at the table, planning together. That's a good step toward building a stronger, more resilient community that is prepared to work together to face energy scarcity.