Oil. We’re using it up like there’s no tomorrow. But there is.

Why is it, then, that nobody wants to talk about peak oil?
We’re willing to discuss climate change; even send a tri-partisan
proposal to the governor in an attempt to move Vermont toward a less
fossil-fuel driven energy portfolio. But the “P” word hardly ever
gets any press. At what cost, this silence?

Peak oil, as many readers of Vermont Commons know, occurs when
world oil production reaches its peak and starts declining. U.S. oil
production peaked in 1971 and is now at about half of what it was
then. The resulting gap between production and consumption has
been filled by increasing imports from other countries; we now import
about two thirds of the oil we use. The actual point at which the
world's oil production will decline is in contention; what we do know
is that when world oil production begins declining there will be no
other oil-rich planet nearby to begin importing from.

Earlier this year, the U.S. Government Accountability Office
released a report that concluded, “[T]here is no coordinated federal
strategy for reducing uncertainty about the peak’s timing or mitigating
its consequences.” Sadly, Vermont has no strategy, either, and we are
even more vulnerable than the U.S. as a whole. Vermont imports 100
percent of its oil and is at the end of a long supply chain that begins
as far away as Saudi Arabia or Nigeria.

Why should we care? The cheap, abundant energy that has
fueled Vermont’s economy, heated our homes, and propelled us daily
among home, work, and play is about to disappear – not the oil itself,
but its affordability. As the era of cheap oil becomes a memory,
activities that rely heavily on oil (transportation, agricultural
imports, leisure travel) are likely to be scaled back or cease. Whole
sectors of the Vermont economy are likely to disappear. How many people
will fly or drive here to leaf peep or ski, with gas at $5 or $10 a
gallon and/or the world economy in a recession or depression?

Could natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and renewable energy
plug the gap left by decreasing oil availability? Natural gas is also
near peak; coal contributes more to climate change than oil does per
Btu of energy; nuclear power, likely to remain part of energy
portfolios everywhere, has no long-term solution to storing high-level
waste and no solutions to the risk of weapons proliferation and
terrorism; and renewables cannot provide the sheer amount of power that
has been exploited by burning half the world’s recoverable stocks of
oil. (For example, hydrogen can be made by using electricity to split
water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen. Powering a single daily New
York-to-London round-trip 747 flight with hydrogen generated by this
method would require 400 wind turbines the size of those recently
approved for Sheffield.)

What You Don’t Know Can Hurt You

Such profound and imminent changes cry out for energetic
preparation. Unfortunately, most people don’t even know what peak oil
is, and state leadership is not trying to educate them. We need
to get the word out, to ride like Paul Revere to the corners of the
state and shout “Peak oil Is Coming!” Except our task is much more
difficult than Revere’s; the citizens on the roads to Lexington and
Concord in 1775 already understood who the British were and what the
consequences could be of Redcoats on the march.

Unlike Revere, we need to prepare people by explaining to
individuals and local groups why peak oil is important. It’s especially
important to talk to people who are willing to start writing letters to
the editor, calling in to radio shows, and otherwise creating more
awareness. Another way is to talk to leaders directly -- both in
government and in the private sector, including the press. This latter
strategy – combined with the lack of response to peak oil at the state
government level – has prompted the creation of the Vermont Peak Oil
Report, being prepared by members of the Vermont Peak Oil Political
Action Group with the intention of delivering it to the legislators in
early this session. We are cautiously optimistic about the
results of this endeavor.

Identifying Peak Oil Response Strategies

Once people are aware of the challenges associated with peak
oil, possible responses vary. Some people simply despair. Among the
constructive responses, most are aimed at finding more oil or oil
substitutes, or learning to live with less.

At their extreme, supply-side policies are aimed at continuing
the steady growth in dependence on oil or oil substitutes. For example,
drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge or turn coal into
liquid fuel. Taken alone, supply-side responses are short-sighted
attempts to fill an expanding void. Figure 1 (below) shows the amount
of new natural gas (expressed as barrels of oil equivalents) and oil
production which must be brought on line by 2015 to compensate for
declines in existing oil fields and meet business-as-usual growth. This
is equivalent to 10 new Saudi Arabias, or 71 Arctic National Wildlife
Refuges!

Demand-side responses acknowledge that we humans exercise a lot
more control over our demand for oil than we do over the supply of oil
or its substitutes. Demand-side responses include such things as
investing transportation monies into public transit rather than
building new highways, and promoting local agriculture, which cuts down
on the diesel-powered miles food travels.

Given the scope of the challenge, we’re putting our money on the
demand-side approach and in-state production of renewable energy. Since
Vermont is 100-percent dependent on imports of fossil fuels, we also
see a need for supply-side responses at the local or regional levels,
not to continue growth in energy use but to provide us with an
alternative to dependence on the global fossil fuel marketplace.

Responding to Peak Oil Through Relocalization

“Relocalization" is the frame that most members of the Vermont
Peak Oil Network have adopted to describe their work. Relocalization
emphasizes strengthening social and economic communities close to home.
It keeps the means and benefits of production and decision-making in
the community, creating jobs and reducing the need for transportation
of goods and people. For example, buy your food from local farmers and
bakers instead of national chains that source ingredients from China.
Heat your home with wood grown nearby instead of oil from the Middle
East, and superinsulate your home so there’s enough wood grown in
Vermont to keep all of us warm. Instead of sending money out of state
to fuel your car for a long commute, live close to your job and bicycle
or walk there. Encourage the development of sustainable local
enterprises within your community.

There are many sectors in which relocalization of goods and
services makes sense and would reduce Vermont’s demand for oil:
land use planning; conservation work; natural resources
management/restoration; organic food production/distribution;
place-based education; public transportation planning/enhancement
(including rail); sustainable forestry and related products
(management/manufacturing/distribution); green building and design;
energy conservation and efficiency; local entertainment; non-toxic
clothing and textiles manufacturing (employing growers, artisans,
weavers, seamstresses, and entrepreneurs); conflict resolution and
local health services; emergency preparedness; community-generated
energy; citizen government; intergenerational care programs; citizen
media; and locally owned businesses and services of every sort.

Relocalization strengthens people’s ties to one another and the
land; it elicits collaboration rather than competitiveness.
Relocalization outwits peak oil, and a good many other things as well.

Liberty and Interdependence are Vermont Traditions – and Make Us Happier, Too.

“Frames” are the mental structures through which people
construct their vision of reality. They represent our values, goals,
and moral inclinations, predisposing us to embrace or reject any
“truths” that come our way. Anything said about peak oil, its
consequences and responses, must speak to the values, concerns, and
identities of listeners as well as promote the policies that can best
smooth the coming bumps in our communities.

“Relocalization”
is a frame that can appeal to Vermonters. Relocalization offers the
opportunity to create economies and policies as if friendships and
communities mattered, and gives individuals more control over the
decisions that shape their lives. The following story of an iconic
Vermont figure illustrates the benefits of relocalization:

Each morning, Henry’s father drove his team of horses up the steep hill
to deliver milk to his neighbors. In winter, he would make his
way by peering through two holes he’d drilled in a piece of wood set up
as a windshield. Everybody knew him. They knew where the
milk came from. It was fresh and local, and buying from Henry’s father
not only guaranteed good milk; it also granted him a livelihood that
had dignity and worth in his community.

The relocalization proponent can tie that story to economic policy:

How many of us can say the same about our jobs? Cheap energy has
allowed us to seek jobs and interests apart from our communities,
reducing our time for community life. No wonder Americans are among the
loneliest of the world’s citizens. In Deep Economy (2007), Bill
McKibben describes how self-reported happiness peaked in the U.S. in
the 1950s and has declined ever since, despite a tripling of our
national wealth. He blames much of the decline on the loss of contact
with other people, which parallels the growth in automobile ownership
and suburban sprawl. In Vermont, the additional pressure of local jobs
disappearing creates its own special problems; dependence on distant
jobs (and therefore cars) grew as job opportunities at home dwindled.
New economic opportunities on a community scale are needed: good
jobs, with dignity, right here at home.

Supporting relocalization can also help people accept, even embrace,
one of the keys to a transition to a post-peak world: buying and using
less stuff. “Put down your Playstations and get to know your
neighbors” could be a rallying cry. Or, as the Center for the New
American Dream puts it, make time for “More of What Matters.”

In Conclusion

There is no magic elixir, no silver-bullet approach
to the successful mitigation of peak oil. One doomed attempt at a
silver bullet is what Richard Heinberg calls the “Last One Standing”
response, a military-industrial grab for control of remaining resources.
A better alternative is a combination of local responses, both
individual and collective. Once people are aware of the peak oil
challenge, there are many things they can do immediately, like start
growing more of their own food, insulate their homes, reacquaint
themselves with their neighbors, install wood heat, build up their
bicycling muscles, etc. But individuals alone cannot meet the all the
challenges; we need to respond collectively, through good policy,
informed by and responsive to citizen input.

It’s time to start a conversation about how we as a state are
going to respond to peak oil. In Brattleboro, the selectboard has
authorized an 11-member Peak Oil Task Force to educate itself to the
nature and consequences of peak oil, and to recommend mitigation
strategies as appropriate. The Task Force is a logical and necessary
extension on a continuum of community engagement that Post-Oil
Solutions, the local peak oil and relocalization group, has been
involved with for more than two years. Such efforts have worked in
other places. The city council of Portland, Oregon, appointed a
12-person Peak Oil Task Force, which issued a report in March urging
Portland to “Act big, act now.” Recommendations included reducing oil
and natural gas consumption by 50 percent over the next 25 years, and
they include strategies for doing that. This is the type of fundamental
shift in thinking that creates effective responses to the peak oil
challenge, and we hope that the Vermont Peak Oil Report will offer the
same opportunity to Vermont.

We recommend that a Peak Oil Task Force be formed here in
Vermont, to examine the consequences of peak oil for Vermonters and to
recommend response strategies. It should, like the Governor’s
Commission on Climate Change, be drawn from a cross section of Vermont
interests. It should also include many people already involved in
relocalization efforts, who know what they entail and how valuable they
are. Let’s, as a state, recognize the scope of the peak oil challenge
and coordinate our strategies to mitigate its consequences.

And, as individuals, let’s take up our civic responsibilities and create resilient communities right where we live.

Peak oil is everybody’s challenge.