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Inventing a Virtual Think Tank for the Transition to a Relocalized Economy
By Carl Etnier
University of New Hampshire professor Dennis Meadows told the Chittenden County Municipal Planning Organization last fall that he expected humans to experience more change in the next 20 years than we had experienced over the previous century. Meadows has a history of seeing the future more clearly than others; he co-authored the 1972 book The Limits to Growth, which used computer modeling to project the impacts of “business as usual” on world, health, food supply, natural resources, and population. Thirty five years later, reality closely tracked the projections.
Peak oil alone could effect the scale of changes Meadows anticipates. Peak oil, as many readers of Vermont Commons know, occurs when world oil production reaches its peak and starts declining. In the US, for example, oil production peaked in 1971 and is now at about half of that level. World crude oil production peaked in May of 2005, and has not risen above that level despite sustained high prices. Production may rebound somewhat, but few studies project that it will be delayed enough to stave off the severe dislocations anticipated by a 2005 study commissioned by the US Department of Energy. The authors of that study say that two decades of Apollo project level of effort would be needed to re-tool the US economy to respond to peak oil.
With too little time for a smooth transition to an energy poor future, how can we make the coming bumpy ride as little uncomfortable as possible? “Relocalization” is the strategy that most members of the Vermont Peak Oil Network have adopted. Relocalization emphasizes strengthening local social and economic communities. It keeps the means and benefits of production and decision making in the community, creating jobs and reducing the need for transportation of goods and people. Eat a localvore diet, growing many of your own foods. Heat your home with Vermont wood instead of Saudi oil—and superinsulate your home so we can all stay warm with the wood that can be sustainably harvested in Vermont. Live close to your job and bicycle or walk there.
Knowledge of how to relocalize will be key to making the transition. Some types of knowledge exists in the people of our state and just need to be spread—like how to grow a vegetable garden, or how to bicycle commute on icy winter roads. Some things we will have to make up as we go along—and we can learn from each other's ideas and experiences. For example, the University of Vermont (UVM) and local farmers are working on finding and developing wheat varieties that do well in Vermont farming conditions.
“A lot of communities are eager to reduce their energy use, and they just need a clearinghouse to help them find information on what works,” says Johanna Miller, outreach coordinator for the Vermont Natural Resources Council. Besides energy use, clearinghouses could be useful for many other areas. Also needed are forums for developing new policy or solving problems for small businesses or organizations.
Examples of Vermont Knowledge Resources
Some resources like that already exist.
Want to know what Vermont organizations are helping to build a local economy, connecting neighbors socially, or promoting bicycle use? Check out the Vermont Resources page at the Vermont Peak Oil Network website. The page classifies organizations by categories and gives short descriptions as well as links to their web pages. Pages like this serve as a sort of on-line Yellow Pages for communities of interest.
Do you know something about policies that would encourage local food production? Help write UVM's Local Food Policy wiki. A wiki is a set of articles, or even a book, that is written and edited collaboratively, on the web. Wikis provide a fast (the word is Hawaiian for “fast”) way to organize knowledge. Wikipedia is the most famous and the largest, an on-line encyclopedia with over two million articles in English alone, and articles in more than 100 languages. Others exist for everything from keeping track of the details of Harry Potter plots to describing actors and activities in US politics. Anyone can register, log on, and write or edit articles. The edits are rated by other users, and the ones that are ranked most highly are the ones that stay—until the next round of editing.
For many practical matters, there are resources like Cooperative Extension, Master Gardeners' hotline, or the new 211 health and human services information and referral program.
Wikis rely on amateur editors who generally compile information from other sources. They generally don't break new information. Some questions require original research; for that, service learning courses at colleges and universities can help. Service learning connects community partners who have questions with students who can research them as part of their coursework. Vermont Campus Compact in Middlebury coordinates the state's network of higher education institutions who wish to incorporate service learning into their classes.
One of the stars of service learning is Middlebury economics professor Jon Isham. This spring, his Environmental Economics class heard pitches from 11 community organizations who wanted help analyzing problems like how to establish a locally owned internet broadband provider and low-power FM station, how to introduce a local currency, or the feasibility of increasing employee commuting through rideshare or public transportation. Many of those questions became research papers by teams of students. Students are excited by service learning projects, because they can combine their studies with making a difference in the real world. And small businesses or non-profit organizations can get analytical skills that they might not be able to afford to hire.
The Missing Knowledge Resource
Vermont already has a lot of resources for sharing knowledge relevant to relocalization and developing the new knowledge needed. Two more things could greatly expand the potential of us to help each other through the transitions ahead: 1) Increasing the pool of people available to solve problems and 2) creating a statewide forum for connecting people with questions to people who know the answers or have the skills to come up with them.
Now, campuses and universities are key places for finding service learning students who can research, for example, how much food Burlington or Bennington could grow if all lawns were converted to gardens, or what small hydropower sites exist in Addison County. Vermont has many other people who could help with such projects, or lead them: retired engineers, architects, scientists, and other professionals, for example. What institutions can be set up, similar to Vermont Campus Compact, that can entice them into helping out?
Creating a statewide forum would both give people access to the information already generated through collaborative projects and would help owners of questions find people who can answer them. It would archive service-learning papers, so that Champlain College could learn from Middlebury College's investigations of how to promote employee ride sharing, and St. Johnsbury activists could profit from Middlebury's investigations of a local currency.
For questions that have not been addressed in any way, or that need a more customized approach, the statewide forum can bring together people from around the state. An organization in Windsor County may not find people locally to research the economics of setting up a cider press co-op, for example, but students at Sterling College or residents of Wake Robin may be willing to do the project.
What features would be needed in a statewide forum, and who could administer it? What else haven't I thought of? Here's your opportunity to join in collaboration. Come to the Community page of the Vermont Peak Oil Network web site and join the discussion!